Friday, March 20, 2015

Tracking the Evolution of Google Panda Updates – From Monthly to Tremors to Missing in Action

At a recent industry event, Google’s Gary Illyes dropped a bombshell on the audience (and the SEO world). He explained that Panda was now real-time. And if that was the case, it would mean that if you’ve been impacted by Panda, then making the right changes would immediately be reflected in the search results (once Google recrawled and reprocessed your URLs). In other words, you can be hit, or recover, at any time. That was big news to say the least.
But here’s the problem. I had a hard time believing that was true from the second I heard it. And many others didn’t believe it was accurate, either.
I have access to a lot of Panda data across websites, categories, and countries. And based on having access to that data, I can typically see when Panda updates are released into the wild. That’s both confirmed updates like Panda 4.0 and 4.1, and unconfirmed updates like the sneaky 10/24/14 update, which I picked up while Penguin 3.0 was rolling out. By the way, that’s the Panda update John Mueller referenced during a recent webmaster hangout when speaking about the last time Google released Panda.
To be more specific about what I’ve witnessed Panda-wise, I haven’t seen any significant movement on sites impacted by Panda since the 10/24/14 update. I also haven’t seen fresh hits that resemble Panda attacks. In other words, large drops in traffic on websites susceptible to Google Panda. And again, many others who track Panda closely are saying the same thing.

John Mueller Confirms What We Thought – Panda Is Not Real-Time

In a webmaster hangout video from March 10, 2015, Barry Schwartz asked a question that many of us have been dying to know the answer to (especially since Gary dropped the real-time bombshell). He asked John if Panda was in fact real-time and if he could explain more about Gary’s comments.
John explained that the last Panda update was in October of 2014 and that he would have to check to see what Gary was referring to. It seems there are aspects of Panda that might be real-time, but you still need a Panda refresh or update in order to see the impact.
John speaks about Panda at 23:43 in the video:
The last point is incredibly important to understand, since many sites impacted by Panda are wondering when they can see recovery or partial recovery. With real-time comments being thrown around, some webmasters were left scratching their heads about why they haven’t seen any movement since October 2014. Well, if there hasn’t been a Panda refresh or update, they won’t see any movement… Instead, they need Panda to be released in order to see that impact.

Tracking the Evolution of How Google Rolls Out Panda

As the real-time situation unfolded, I started thinking about common questions I get from webmasters about Panda, how Google releases Panda updates and refreshes, when they occurred, etc. So below, I decided to provide a historical background of how Google releases Panda.
I’m not going to list all of the updates, but instead, I’ll explain when important changes occurred to how the algorithm rolls out. My hope is that the information below will clear up common misconceptions about Panda and how Google releases it into the wild. Then I’ll end this post with my thoughts about the future of Panda updates (and other major algorithms).

Panda 1.0 – The Cutssozoic Era

More than 15,000 years ago, when content farms roamed the Web, a new algorithm arrived called Farmer, I mean Panda. :) When Panda first hit the scene in February of 2011, it rocked the industry. Many sites that traditionally received boatloads of traffic plummeted faster than a lead anvil in a pool. It targeted low-quality content, and content farms were the core focus of attention.
panda-evolution-feb-2011

Rolling Updates Every Four to Six Weeks

After Panda 1.0, Google rolled out Panda every four to six weeks and would announce those updates. Ah, those were the days... SEOs were able to put a numbering system in place, know exactly when Panda rolled out, and companies would clearly (OK, mostly clearly) understand when they were hit and what hit them.
panda-evolution-rolling-updates

10-Day Rollout, But Will Not Be Confirmed – The Unconfirmazoic Era

In March 2013, Matt Cutts announced that Panda was being incorporated into Google’s normal indexing process, so they wouldn’t be announcing future Panda updates. He also said this:
"Rather than having some huge change that happens on a given day, you are more likely in the future to see Panda deployed gradually as we rebuild the index. So you are less likely to see these large scale sorts of changes."
This led many to believe that Panda was approaching the real-time stage (which it wasn’t). And by the way, we absolutely saw large-scale impact from Panda after that date… so I’m not sure what Matt said was entirely accurate. More about that soon.
Then in June, Matt explained that Panda had matured to the point where Google trusted the algorithm more. Based on the maturation of Panda, Google would roll out Panda monthly, but it could take up to 10 days to fully roll out. He also reiterated that Google would not confirm future Panda updates because it was more a rolling update. That’s when I wrote a post about what this meant for Panda victims, and SEOs overall. I basically said that a new layer of complexity had arrived, and I was right.
panda-evolution-10-days
So, we moved on and tracked Panda updates the best we could. As I mentioned earlier, I was able to track a number of the updates and tried to document them when possible. For example, here’s a post about the January 2014 update. I saw a number of Panda victims recover, while also getting calls from new Panda victims. The combination enables me to identify a specific date of the rollout. And here’s a post about the March 2014 update. You get the picture. So Panda was rolling out regularly, but Google just wasn’t confirming the updates. That’s until May of 2014, which I’ll cover next.

New Factors = Google Confirmation – The Hugozoic Era

Then May 19, 2014 arrived and my Panda Richter scale was moving so fast it almost set fire to my office. Panda 4.0 rolled out and it was HUGE. Google announced the update after many of us saw significant movement across sites impacted by Panda, while also seeing many fresh hits. And many of those hits were extreme.
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