Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) planned the launch and the roll out patterns of the Apple Watch very smartly earlier this year. After online pre-ordering commenced on April 10, the Watch was sold out within a day, while the available orders for the Gold Edition in China were a clean sweep within hours. As the world awaits the premium branded smartwatch, 9to5Mac reports that KGI Securities has cut its estimates of the Watch’s success and sales for this year in a new research note.
KGI Securities is considered as a reliable source, especially in the case of analyzing and predicting the performance and plans of the Cupertino-based company; so analysts and investors alike took note when the investment and research firm has slashed its earlier estimates of the Watch’s shipment numbers. KGI predicts that Apple will sell between 5 million and 6 million units of the Watch in the third quarter of this year; the revised estimates reflect a 20% to 30% downward change.
KGI’s estimates differ significantly from the Street’s consensus estimate of the smartwatch’s shipments. The Street consensus is rather bullish on the Apple Watch’s performance for this year, and analysts expect the company to ship between 20 million and 30 million units. KGI Securities had similar expectations, but now, after reviewing data from the previous quarter, the firm slashed its earlier estimates by half to just under 15 million for the full-year 2015.
The key KGI analyst associated with this news is Ming Chi Kuo, who has a decent record when it comes to accurately predicting Apple’s plans for its gadgets and estimating the sales. So why is the somewhat unbiased, yet analytical advocate of the tech giant predicting a slow year for the Apple Watch? Mr. Kuo believes that the demand for the Watch has significantly quieted down after the initial overwhelming hype around the time of its debut. He believes that the demand for the Apple Watch – and thus the sales – have already peaked and are doomed to drop for the year.
One interesting thing in the note was the claim that 80% of the orders placed for the Apple Watch are for the bigger 42mm version, deduced from the different shipping times assigned to orders for different sizes. The note proposed the assumption that men prefer the bigger size while women opt for the 38mm version, claiming that the gadget is far more popular in men than women.
Mr. Kuo has sources and informers in Apple’s supply chain based in Taiwan, and he stated that as the Watch’s Taptic Engine is being worked on to be improved, the supplier for that has not increased the output for weeks now. According to KGI, the shipment dates were placed all the way back to June, immediately after the Watch’s debut.
Since then, there has been a significant drop in shipment times; the firm says that the high demand has flattened out, as units produced in the second quarter are meeting the demand initiated since the debut, while the continuous demand for the Watch is currently falling.
Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, on the other hand, claims in her report that the demand for the Apple Watch is in fact rising. She believes that the tech giant is not striving to gain demand for the gadget, but is instead somewhat struggling to keep up with the massive demand for it. Ms. Huberty estimates that Apple could sell 50 million watches this year if it could speed up the production, but based on real world circumstances, she raised her estimates from 30 million to 36 million shipments of the Apple Watch to take place for the 12 months of 2015. In a bullish note issued by Ms. Huberty to clients on Wednesday, estimates for sales of both the Apple Watch and the iPhone were raised.
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